Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Influencing Factors—Anhui Province as an Example

Abstract

The study of water resources carrying capacity is a crucial aspect of water resources ecological security research. To account for the interplay between regional natural conditions and economic and social factors, a natural–economic–social–environmental evaluation index system is established within the framework of water resources. The comprehensive index of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province is then calculated using the entropy weight method and CRITIC model. Spatial kernel density and Dagum analysis are employed to analyze the results. The findings indicate that (1) the overall water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province has exhibited an upward trend from 2003 to 2021, with the overall index of water resources carrying capacity increasing from 0.34 to 0.49. (2) The presence of water resources carrying capacity polarization in Anhui Province is evident, although this trend has been diminishing in recent years. (3) The Gini coefficient of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province first increases and then decreases, with the Gini coefficient between groups being more pronounced than the Gini coefficient within groups. (4) Geospatial factors play a significant role in shaping the future spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province. Additionally, the interaction of water resources carrying capacity among neighboring areas contributes to the reduction of differences between water resources carrying capacity in different regions in the future.