Analysis of site-response residuals from empirical ground-motion models to account for observed sedimentary basin effects in Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract

Analysis of prediction–observation residuals from the empirical ground-motion models (GMMs) used in the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM) update indicates a general underprediction of ground motions in the period range of [Formula: see text] s for soft sedimentary basin sites in Wellington. This study uses residual analysis to quantify this underprediction, understand the spatial distribution of these residuals and the specific conditions that cause them, and investigate options for the development of non-ergodic site-response adjustments to the GMMs. All 15 GMMs used in the NZ NSHM were evaluated, and the variability in site-response residuals between different models and different tectonic types of earthquake sources was quantified. Sites are regionalized based on different geomorphic features, such as individual basins and valleys. For example, average site terms are calculated for Te Aro, Thorndon, Miramar, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt, and several smaller valleys. The period at which maximum underprediction occurs at these sedimentary basin and valley sites was found to correlate well with the fundamental site period of the soil profile [Formula: see text], suggesting improvements can be made to regionalized GMMs by incorporating site period into the site-response prediction for sedimentary basin sites.