Analysis of risk factors and prediction model construction for varicella encephalitis in children: A retrospective cohort study.

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for varicella encephalitis in children and establish a predictive model. This retrospective cohort study included a varicella encephalitis group (n = 75) and a varicella-non-encephalitis group (n = 135). Logistic regression analysis was employed to find risk factors for varicella encephalitis and create a predictive model. Older age, vomiting, poor mental status, and prolonged rash duration were independent risk factors for varicella encephalitis (p < .05). The predictive model for varicella encephalitis combined above four factors. The ROC curve of the predictive model showed an area under the curve of 0.955 (95% CI 0.925-0.986) for varicella encephalitis in children with a sensitivity of 94.7%, and a specificity of 86.0%. Children with varicella who are older, experience vomiting, exhibit poor mental status, or have a prolonged rash duration should be closely monitored clinically. The predictive model combining these four factors demonstrates good predictive efficiency.