Analysis of regional differences and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China

Abstract

In order to realize “double carbon” target in agriculture and high-quality development of the rural economy in China, it is crucial to study the regional differences and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). This paper measures ACE using panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020, examines the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics，the convergence of agricultural carbon emissions, compares and analyzes regional differences, and investigates the spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects. The study found that: (1) Total agricultural carbon emissions over the research period exhibit a rising and then reducing trend, the spatial distribution of total agricultural carbon emissions is described as high in east-central and low in west. The gap of agricultural carbon emissions is gradually declining in the east, and will eventually reach their respective steady-state levels in the west and northeast. (2) There is a strong spatial interprovincial link of ACE, which has a beneficial knock-on effect on the convergence of adjacent provinces. (3) Agricultural industrial structure, urbanization level, the size of the agricultural labor force, and the intensity of the agricultural machinery input all directly affect ACE in this province and indirectly affect ACE in adjacent provinces, with the exception of the negligible coefficient of economic development level on ACE. Hence, pertinent policy suggestions are put out to serve as a guide for reducing ACE.