Abstract
Investigating the dynamics of rainfall has become very crucial in managing water resources efficiently for sustainable development. The present study aimed to analyze the rainfall distribution in Kurunegala district. Historical rainfall data collected from four gauging stations were subjected to both mathematical and statistical analysis. In addition, trends of rainfall, probability of exceedance and meteorological drought conditions were studied. Rainfall distribution in the district shows high variations. Bathalagoda records the highest mean annual rainfall of 1843 mm. The corresponding values for Wariyapola, Mediyawa and Siyambalagamuwa are 1629 mm, 1315 mm and 1222 mm, respectively. Rainfall is concentrated only in certain months in a year. Annual rainfall exceedance at 50% probability is 1825 mm at Bathalagoda. The corresponding figures for Wariyapola, Mediyawa and Siyambalagamuwa are 1662 mm, 1284 mm and 1226 mm, respectively. Mediyawa, Wariyapola, and Siyambalagamuwa show a decreasing trend in annual rainfall while Bathalagoda shows an increasing trend. Southwest monsoonal (SWM) and 2nd inter-monsoonal (IM2) rainfalls show a decreasing trend at all gauging stations. Mediyawa and Bathalagoda show a positive trend in both 1st inter-monsoonal (IM1) and Northeast monsoonal (NEM) rainfalls. A negative trend in Maha seasonal rainfall is observed in all regions except Bathalagoda. A positive trend of Yala seasonal rainfall is observed at Mediyawewa and Bathalogoda. Further, severe drought conditions were experienced in the recent years at Wariyapola, Mediyawa, and Siyambalagamuwa. Compared to other regions, rainfall at Mediyawa and Siyambalagamuwa highly deviates from the long-term mean. In the study area, rainfall distribution shows a cyclic pattern over time. However, the amount of rainfall received in the recent years is lower than the amount received in the immediate past decade at all stations except Bathalagoda. Hence, proper management decisions based on rainfall distribution patterns is vital for the efficient management of water resources while guaranteeing sustainable agricultural production in this district.
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