Abstract
China has adopted policies, such as the Grain for Green program (GFGP) and China’s Western Development Strategy, to maintain ecosystem sustainability and the rational use of land resources based on economic development. Existing studies have revealed the impact of these policies on land use and land cover change (LUCC). However, more research is needed to identify what would happen if the original trajectory of land use change were to continue unaffected by policy. In this research, we employed the future land use (FLUS) model to simulate land use changes in Chongqing under the natural scenario in 2020, assuming the existence of policy and natural contexts. The relative contribution conceptual model (RCCM) estimated the contribution of policies to LUCC, assessed the characteristics of LUCC in both situations using a complex network model, and analyzed the policies affecting LUCC. The findings revealed that cropland was the key land use type in both contexts, and the stability of the land use system in the natural context was greater than in the policy context. This research contributes to new research ideas for analyzing land use change and comprehending the role of policy execution in land use change.
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