Analysis of Food Commodity Prices in Mozambique before and after the 2007/08 International Food Price Crisis

Abstract

Large increases in international cereal prices during the international food price crisis of 2007/08 contributed to dramatic cereal price increases in many developing countries that regularly import grains. Previous research using descriptive analysis has noted that food commodity prices in Mozambique appear to be higher on average since 2008 (Cunguara et al 2012), even though international grain prices began to fall in 2009. In this paper, we use a combination of graphical and time series econometric analysis of monthly retail market price data from Mozambique for a number of food commodities to investigate: (a) the extent to which food commodity prices have risen in Mozambique post-2008; and (b) whether increases in international cereal prices and/or changes in domestic factors appear to explain increases in domestic food commodity prices post-2008. We have four main findings from this analysis.