Analysis of Flood Resistance of Masonry Arch Bridges Combining Numerical Simulation and Probabilistic Analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the context of global climate change, extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and floods are becoming more frequent. The safety of masonry arch bridges is facing unprecedented challenges. This study aims to explore the collapse mechanism of bridges in flood environments by combining numerical simulation and stochastic analysis. Taking the collapse of the Original Zhenhai Bridge caused by heavy rainfall in July 2020 as a specific case, a three-dimensional numerical model is established to analyze the mechanical response of the bridge under the combined action of flood scour and water flow loads. Additionally, predictions of scour depth are made using both theoretical formulas and stochastic methods, comparing the impact of stochastic analysis on the mechanical performance of arch bridges under the same flood conditions. The study reveals that compared to pure scour, the structural characteristics of the bridge undergo significant changes under the coupled effects of scour and water flow loads. In extreme flood events, stochastic analysis has a significant impact on the structural safety under high flow conditions. The research results provide case references and scientific methods for the safety analysis of masonry arch bridges in flood environments.