Abstract
In order to analyze the factors that affect energy consumption in Hunan Province comprehensively, firstly, this paper used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and divided the total energy consumption growth of three industries from 2006 to 2015 in Hunan Province into scale effect, structure effect and efficiency effect. Secondly, the long-term energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system was used, and the LEAP-Hunan model with benchmark, scale effect, structure effect, efficiency effect and comprehensive adjustment scenarios was set up to analyze the impacts of the three kinds of effects on the total energy consumption profoundly. LMDI qualitative decomposition results show that the scale effect promotes the rapid growth of energy consumption, and efficiency effect can reduce energy consumption in Hunan Province, while inhibition of the structure effect is not prominent on the growth of energy consumption. The quantitative results of LEAP model are highly consistent with it, whose influence on the structure effect is reasonably extrapolated. This phenomenon shows that the structure effect and efficiency effect will jointly bear the inhibitory effect on the growth of total energy consumption in the future. In addition, the LEAP model has predictions about energy consumption from 2016 to 2040 in Hunan Province.
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