Analysis of energy carbon emissions from agroecosystems in Tarim River Basin, China: A pathway to achieve carbon neutrality

Abstract

Accounting for energy carbon emissions and analyzing the driving factors from a watershed perspective is necessary and helpful for achieving emission reduction targets in arid regions. Based on Sustainable Development Goals and socioeconomic data, the spatiotemporal characteristics of energy carbon emissions, driving factors, and future trends in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) were analyzed by constructing an index system, and using a Bayesian network and Tapio model. The results indicated that from 1989 to 2018, the energy carbon emissions in the TRB increased (0.75 tCO2/capita per year) because of the unreasonable structure of agricultural economic development. We conducted a sensitivity analysis and found that the primary influencing factors of energy carbon emissions in the TRB are low water utilization efficiency (Water) and rapid GDP growth (sdg8_adjgrowth). Although technological progress (sdg9_rdex) has little impact on energy carbon emissions in the short term, its impact cannot be ignored in the long run. In addition, the energy carbon emissions in the TRB will peak in 2030 (66.08 tCO2/capita), and then decrease in following years. The continuous increase in energy carbon emissions in the TRB has greatly increased the difficulty for achieving the dual carbon goals. Water resource utilization and economic structure determine the changes in energy carbon emissions. Our findings have important implications for the continued implementation of stringent carbon emissions policies. However, owing to data limitations, only general trends in energy carbon emissions were obtained, and a comprehensive follow-up study is required.