Analysis of energy consumption and carbon emission during the urbanization of Shandong Province, China

Abstract

Since the combustion of fossil fuel became the largest contributing factor of greenhouse gas emissions in China, the growth of energy consumption caused by urbanization has led to significant increase in carbon emissions. Applying both the carbon-emissions-coefficient and the sector-energy-consumption method, we predicted the energy consumption and carbon emissions, explored the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in different urbanization stages, and analyzed the energy crisis in Shandong which is a typical province in China. The results indicate that in 2015 and 2020, the total primary energy consumption will be 1.57 times and 1.85 times higher than that of in 2009, and the carbon emissions are estimated to be 1.48 times and 1.67 times respectively. The urbanization has distinct positive effects on energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the influence is more obvious in the intermediate-stage than in the early-stage. From a policy perspective, this paper could provide valuable information for planners and decision makers to formulate feasible and practical polices with a view to optimize energy structure and mitigate carbon emissions.