Analysis of electric load forecasting using combined method (Study case 2019 – 2029 in PT. PLN (Persero) UP3 Sukabumi)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find out how much electric load to Sukabumi from 2019 until 2029 at PT. PLN (Persero) UP3 Sukabumi. Forecasting of electrical load using historical data. This research uses a combined method, which is a method compiled by combining several models such as econometrics, analysis, and trends with a sectoral approach, which is an approach by grouping electricity consumers into four sectors, namely the resident, commercial, public, and industrial sectors. The population forecast of Sukabumi in 2019-2029 shows an average growth of 0.36% per year. Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) for resident sector growth of 6.26% per year, commercial sector growth of 6.26% per year, public sector growth of 6.26% per year, and the industrial sector growth of 10.07% per year. The electric customers for the resident sector growth of 5.26%, commercial sector growth of 13.96% per year, public sector growth of 7.58% per year, and industrial sector growth of 3.53% per year. The electric contracted power for the resident sector growth of 5.19% per year, commercial sector growth of 14.96% per year, public sector growth of 7.28% per year, and industrial sector growth of 3.36% per year. Growth of population, GRDP, number of electric customers, and power contracted, as shown in forecasting 2019-2029, will affect to increasing electrical load. The total electrical load will be 1,054.22 MVA in 2019 and 2,043.80 MVA in 2029 or growth of 6.74% per year.