Analysis of drivers and policy implications of carbon dioxide emissions of industrial energy consumption in an underdeveloped city: The case of Nanchang, China

Abstract

Currently, little attention has been paid to reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of underdeveloped cities to combat climate change, especially in central China. Taking Nanchang as a case study, we computed this city's CO2 emissions (CE) from industrial energy consumption and analyzed the corresponding drivers using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). The results showed that economic output was mainly responsible for the CE growth followed by population with average annual contribution rates of 26.00% and 2.27%, respectively. In contrast, energy intensity presented the most clear mitigation effect followed by industrial structure, the mitigating effect of energy mix was the least impactful, and the average annual contributions were −10.71%, −4.20% and −1.40%, respectively. Moreover, the CE from “fuel combustion” exhibited a clear fluctuation due to the economic crisis, but the CE of “electricity and heat” exhibited only a slight variation because the consumption of the former could be easily reduced but reducing consumption of the latter is difficult in everyday life. In addition, in the traditional modes of economic development, I19 (smelting and processing of ferrous metals), I30 (production and supply of electric power and heat power) and I15 (manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products), were always among the top 3 contributing sub-sectors. However, in the ‘new normal’, I26 (manufacture of communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment) and I2 (processing of food from agricultural products) were first among the top 3 sub-sectors. Thus, these sub-sectors should be given priority when designing related reduction policies. Specific countermeasures or suggestions for reducing Nanchang's CE were recommended.