Analysis of COVID-19’s Dynamic Behavior Using a Modified SIR Model Characterized by a Nonlinear Function

Abstract

This study develops a modified SIR model (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this model, infected individuals are categorized into the following two classes: Ia, representing asymptomatic individuals, and Is, representing symptomatic individuals. Moreover, accounting for the psychological impacts of COVID-19, the incidence function is nonlinear and expressed as Sg(Ia,Is)=βS(Ia+Is)1+α(Ia+Is). Additionally, the model is based on a symmetry hypothesis, according to which individuals within the same compartment share common characteristics, and an asymmetry hypothesis, which highlights the diversity of symptoms and the possibility that some individuals may remain asymptomatic after exposure. Subsequently, using the next-generation matrix method, we compute the threshold value (R0), which estimates contagiousness. We establish local stability through the Routh–Hurwitz criterion for both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Furthermore, we demonstrate global stability in these equilibria by employing the direct Lyapunov method and La-Salle’s invariance principle. The sensitivity index is calculated to assess the variation of R0 with respect to the key parameters of the model. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate and validate the analytical findings.