Mathematical Model and Optimal Control Strategy for the Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Disease Incorporating Treatment Failure and Advanced Stage Compartments

Abstract

In this paper, mathematical model for the dynamic of Hepatitis B virus infection was developed taking into cognizance the effect of rate of progression to the end stage (cirrhosis and HCC) by individuals who experience treatment failure in the treatment class and chronically infected class. In order to track the transmission of these diseases, the basic reproduction number which determines the rate of new secondary infection when an infected individual is introduced into a totally susceptible population was computed by next generation matrix method (NGM). The stability of the disease-free equilibrium point was also investigated using Routh-Hurwitz Criterion and the result proven to be Locally Asymptotically Stable (LAS) when the basic reproduction number less than unity. The global stability was also investigated by Castillo-Chavez method and the results show that the model is Globally Asymptotically (GAS) when reproduction number is less than unity. Sensitivity analysis was carried out on the parameters of the reproduction number, using forward normalized sensitivity index to ascertain those parameters of high impact on the reproduction number to aid the incorporation of the control variables appropriately. Numerical simulation was also carried using Forward-backward Runge-Kutta fourth order scheme to study the effect of these control strategies on the dynamics of the model and the results shows that the best strategy to implement to help eradicate HBV disease in the system is strategy E which is the combination of effective condom use, HBV vaccination, HBV Treatment and Behavioral change