Analysis of COVID-19 pandemic trends and its impact on the health system of the main urban centers of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Abstract

Objectives: In this study, related to COVID-19, we characterized the epidemiologic, trends and the impact of new coronavirus on the health systems of the main urban centers in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Methods: A retrospective time series encompassing data associated with COVID-19 disease, from March to July of 2020, were approached for verifying the trends of social distancing rate and number of daily deaths by means of Mann-Kendall test. The Binomial test was performed to analyzing the differences between percentages of two periods (before and after pandemic) with the goal to measure the impact of disease on health systems. Results: Although the social distancing rates for the main urban centers of Minas Gerais presented declining trend along the time series, Juiz de Fora had the best rate and, consequently, flattened the epidemic curve for new cases of the disease, besides of to notify the lowest number of deaths (Mann-Kendall [Belo Horizonte]: -0.77, p<0.001; Mann-Kendall [Juiz de Fora]: -0.74, p<0.001; Mann-Kendall [Uberlandia]: 0.29, p<0.001). The number of oncologic treatments in Belo Horizonte (April 2019 vs April 2020= -41.5%; p<0.001) and clinical treatments in Uberlandia (March 2019 vs March 2020= -51.7%; p<0.0001) have reduced drastically before and after pandemic. Conclusions: Therefore, the implementation of a higher social distancing rate could flatten the epidemic curve avoiding an increase in deaths number and to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on health systems preventing the collapse of them.