Abstract
A mathematical model was used to calculate the efficacy of screening to detect hepatocellular carcinoma at a resectable stage in hepatitis B virus carriers. Data relating to tumour incidence, efficacy of screening tests and tumour growth times were obtained from a literature review. Various tests were costed according to charges currently prevailing at the authors' institution. The cost per early tumour detected is inversely proportional to tumour incidence. It is relatively low for populations with high incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma for example, male carriers over the age of 30. Both the costs and the proportions of early tumour detected increase with increasing frequency of screening. However, the use of ultrasonography at 10 monthly intervals or both ultrasonography and alpha-fetoprotein estimation at yearly intervals will detect 90% of tumours early at a cost of S$20,000 (US$11,800) per early tumour detected. The results would be significantly altered if tumour growth times were markedly different from those reported in the literature.
Published Version
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