Analysis of Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Model with Discrete Time Delays

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and its astronomic spread has become a huge threat to world health and economy Different efforts are ongoing on the development of vaccines and drugs for COVID-19 treatment However, the leading strategy to curtail the spread of the dis-eases has been various control measures which aim at breaking the chain of COVID-19 spread In this work, we investigate the impact of government control measures and immune system strength on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic Discrete delays are used to describe the restriction in social contacts due to government orders and the delay in infection manifestation due to immune response The qualitative analysis of COVID-19 pandemic steady-state predict a stable state if COVID-19 latent period is negative and unstable state when the latent period is positive The inclusion of delay in social contacts stabilizes the unstable pandemic steady-state when the infection is symptomatic and unstable when the infection is asymptomatic Optimal strategy to flatten COVID-19 pandemic curve using social distance is also recommended © 2020, Institute of Advanced Scientific Research, Inc All rights reserved