Analysis of Coconut Production Trends under Three Policy Phases in Nigeria

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Coconut is an important crop with numerous economic uses. However, it is not clear how coconut production has performed overtime considering policy inconsistencies within the Nigerian agricultural space. This study therefore measures trends in area, yield and production from a policy standpoint. The study measures growth rates, patterns of growth, sources of production growth and instability. The policy focus is centered on Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP). Data used for the study covers 1961 – 2017, broken into three sub-periods. The findings reveal structural weaknesses arising from slow adoption of new technology, occasioned by inadequate human and financial capital, a disjointed value chain system operating within a weak enabling environment and reliance on inherited land which reduces overtime thereby limiting expansion options for farmers; resulting in patterns of growth that show stagnation and deceleration in the sub-periods. To this end, in a bid to reverse this trend, the study recommends the need for a national coconut policy aimed at improving access to land, new technology, training, farm settlements and access to single digit loan rates that actively target youths in the coconut value chain, this initiative should accelerate the growth performance of coconut considering the immense benefit coconut offers.
 Keywords: Coconut; Decomposition; Growth rate; Growth pattern; Instability