Abstract
The main objective of the paper was comparative analyses of natural gas quantities delivered through the existing pipeline capacities in the last decade and new pipeline capacities for the prediction of possible future flows of gas import to Europe. Changes in physical flows have been influenced by European energy strategies that became green oriented resulting with a high amount of non-utilized transmission capacities. The research findings have shown that there is a significant decrease observed in transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in 2020 than previously. Concerning the high increase of LNG import to Europe in the same year, the start of operation of TurkStream, planned start of operation of Nord stream 2, authors project the gradual decrease of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine until the year 2025 with the total stop of transit of Russian gas until the year 2030. The change of supply routes will be also under the economic influence of low gas prices and coal and gas fuel switch until 2030 in the West EU, and after 2030 in the South Eastern European region. In the short-term period transit system for natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will be necessary for supplementing coal with natural gas in the energy mix.
Highlights
Complex business and political relations of the Russian Federation and EuropeanUnion strongly impact activities on the European gas market [1,2,3]
Major market movements can be expected only due to large demand or supply disruptions at the global markets, where the price of this commodity on organized markets can reach its peak levels, and make LNG more competitive in comparison to natural gas delivered by pipelines from the Russian Federation [11,12]
The majority of Russian gas has been delivered to Europe in the last century via pipelines that were built during the former Soviet Union (USSR) era
Summary
Union strongly impact activities on the European gas market [1,2,3]. Russia as one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of natural gas experiences significant challenges in maintaining and increasing its natural gas export volumes [4,5]. The pipeline transmission of natural gas from its main production region in Eurasia, the Russian Federation, to its main consumption region, the European Union, is always somehow the central, starting, and ending point of these relations [6,7]. After the dissolution of the USSR, part of the pipelines belonged to states that were not in direct control of the Russian Federation anymore Among these states, the majority of the pipeline network belonged to the Republic of Ukraine [13]. The third question search for the answer what are the potential outcomes and reality after North Stream 2 and TurkStream are fully operable in terms of security of supply for Europe and survival of the Ukrainian transmission system in its current form? The first one is to which extent will the geopolitical and energy map of Europe change after the full release of North Stream capacity? The second one is what can be concluded after analyzing the historical Russian–Ukrainian disputes and cut-offs of flows via Ukraine and how to use Ukrainian 30 bcm storage facilities to decrease the shortage risk? The third question search for the answer what are the potential outcomes and reality after North Stream 2 and TurkStream are fully operable in terms of security of supply for Europe and survival of the Ukrainian transmission system in its current form? what do the latest political agreements such as the 2021 Biden–Merkel agreement changes and brings to the involved parties?
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