Abstract
Analysis of changes in monthly and m-daily maximum discharges using the MPI and KNMI climate scenarios in the Myjava and Hron river basins in Slovakia
Highlights
As a result of global climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures are expected to rise; precipitation trends will evolve; and the frequency of extreme occurrences is likely to increase
We looked at the resulting discharge values from several points of view: a) A comparison of the simulated monthly discharges using the MPI scenario and modelled data (MODEL) in the first time period (1981–2010), b) A comparison of the simulated monthly discharges using the KNMI scenario and modelled data (MODEL) in the first time period (1981–2010), c) A comparison of the changes in the simulated monthly discharges using the MPI and the KNMI scenarios until 2100
The simulated data using the KNMI scenario are close to the MODEL data, that’s why the KNMI scenario is a better choice for similar analyses in the future at the Jablonica gauging station. c) If we focus on the results of the simulated data using the MPI and the KNMI climate scenarios throughout the period under study, we observed that the simulated data using the MPI scenario have an upward trend in the second period, but in the following period, the average monthly values of the discharges decrease
Summary
As a result of global climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures are expected to rise; precipitation trends will evolve; and the frequency of extreme occurrences is likely to increase. Riverine flow variability is acknowledged as a driving force of biotic and abiotic conditions (Zhou et al, 2020) Hydrological changes and their effects on ecosystems are critical to the long-term development of water resources. For establishing the parameters of environmental flows, a lot of methods have been devised; each has its own set of advantages and disadvantages, as well as requiring varying levels of work. Some of these methodologies use a wide range of scientific skills along with complex software models and tools (Mathews and Richter, 2007).
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