Abstract
Total uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions changes over time due to “learning” and structural changes in GHG emissions. Understanding the uncertainty in GHG emissions over time is very important to better communicate uncertainty and to improve the setting of emission targets in the future. This is a diagnostic study divided into two parts. The first part analyses the historical change in the total uncertainty of CO2 emissions from stationary sources that the member states estimate annually in their national inventory reports. The second part presents examples of changes in total uncertainty due to structural changes in GHG emissions considering the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) emissions scenarios that are consistent with the EU’s “20-20-20” targets. The estimates of total uncertainty for the year 2020 are made under assumptions that relative uncertainties of GHG emissions by sector do not change in time, and with possible future uncertainty reductions for non-CO2 emissions, which are characterized by high relative uncertainty. This diagnostic exercise shows that a driving factor of change in total uncertainty is increased knowledge of inventory processes in the past and prospective future. However, for individual countries and longer periods, structural changes in emissions could significantly influence the total uncertainty in relative terms.
Highlights
The increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations during the last decades is considered to be the main reason for global warming
The Member States agreed to cut GHG emissions by at least 20 % of 1990 levels (30 % if other developed countries commit to comparable cuts), which equals a 14 % reduction compared with 2005 levels; to cut energy consumption by 20 % of projected 2020 levels by improving energy efficiency; and to increase the use of renewables to 20 % of total final energy consumption
In the two chapters, we present the methodology used to analyse historical changes in relative uncertainty and future estimates of uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources
Summary
The increase in GHG concentrations during the last decades is considered to be the main reason for global warming. According to the inventory report (EEA 2010a), the EU-27 is well on track to achieve its emission reduction target of 20 %. This overall trend is projected to continue until 2020. What is the main reason for changes in reported uncertainties: structural changes in emissions or increased knowledge about inventory processes? How will uncertainties change in the future due to structural changes in GHG emissions under new policy treaties (e.g., the EU’s 2020 targets)? The paper presents an analysis of the historical change in uncertainty of CO2 emissions for the EU-15 as a whole and for individual countries; and it includes estimates of total uncertainty in GHG emissions under scenarios of changes in emissions considering the EU’s “20-20-20” targets
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