Analysis of agricultural land use transformations in Greece: a multinomial logistic regression model at the regional level

Abstract

In the past few decades, numerous structural changes regarding the socio-economic basis of most EU countries have been profound and critical. These processes of economic restructuring have resulted in significant land use changes. As regards the agricultural sector, the overall changes in both Greece and the other European countries have been particularly intense in the last 20 years. Such changes include the massive reduction in the levels of employment in agriculture, shrinkage of the economic importance of the agricultural sector as a whole, changes in crop plants and cultivation practices, crucial implications arising from the new European Common Agricultural Policy and the growing competition due to low-cost agricultural products from developing countries. These changes have not had the same magnitude and impacts across all Greek regions. Instead, significant spatial variability relevant to the regional characteristics of each administrative prefecture can be observed. In this article, we carry out an empirical analysis focusing on agricultural land use patterns at a prefectural level for the whole country. The changes are tracked and analysed in terms of selective possible driving factors. The methodology adopted is multinomial logistic regression. Some policy implications are drawn with a regional perspective.