Analysis of a co-infection model for HPV-TB

Abstract

A two-sex, co-infection model for the transmission dynamics of Human papillomavirus (HPV) and Tuberculosis (TB) in a population is developed and analyzed to gain insight into the impact of the spread of each of the two diseases in a population. The HPV-only sub-model (with heterosexual transmission route only) undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the HPV-only sub-model (denoted by R0H|ξF=ξM=0) is less than unity. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, using data relevant to the dynamics of the two diseases in Shanxi Province in rural China, show that the top ranked parameters that drive the HPV infection (with respect to the associated response function, R0H) are the effective contact rate for HPV transmission from males to females, βM, condom efficacy for males, ϵM, condom compliance rate for males, cM, homosexual contact rate between males, ξM, the HPV recovery rate for males, ϕM, the effective contact rate for HPV transmission from females to males, βF and the fraction of females vaccinated against HPV, f. In addition, the top ranked parameter that affect TB dynamics (with respect to the response function R0T) is the TB transmission rate βT. In addition, simulations of the HPV-TB model reveal that increasing treatment rates for individuals with active TB in the singly and dually infected stages could bring down the burden of the two diseases, and increasing the condom preventability for females significantly reduces the cumulative co-infection new cases of mixed infections in a population.