Abstract
In order to comprehensively analyze the risk factors and accurately find the high risk factors related to accidents, an analysis model of risk factors of urban bus operation is proposed, in which the advantages of the structural analysis of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the correlation analysis of the Cumulative Logistic Regression (CLR) are combined. Firstly, based on the accident data in Northeast China, FTA is used to compile the urban bus operation fault tree. In the fault tree, 16 bus operation risk factors are classified, while the risk factors are sorted and compared from three aspects: structural importance, probability importance, and critical importance. And then, the 11 higher risk factors are selected according to the discriminant principle. Secondly, bus operation accidents are divided into fatal accidents, injury accidents, and major economic loss accidents. The CLR model is used to fit the much higher risk factors that lead to urban bus operation accidents from above 11 higher risk factors. Finally, the scientific rationality and applicability of the model are verified, through the goodness of fit test and the comparison test with the actual probability of occurrence.
Highlights
Due to the large number of passengers transported by bus, casualties are extremely likely to occur in event of an operation accident
Some scholars conduct research on the influence degree of road infrastructure on public transportation safety, the characteristics and weights of basic indicators of urban public transportation, factors affecting the safety of bus operations, and preventive and improvement measures [1,2,3]
For the analysis of traffic safety and the causes of traffic accidents, the scholar uses the Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis to evaluate the safety of the public transportation system [7]
Summary
Due to the large number of passengers transported by bus, casualties are extremely likely to occur in event of an operation accident. Due to the fact that our focus is to excavate and rank all the accident risk factors for urban bus operations as well as the insufficient data about the type and severity of injuries of urban bus operations, the FTA with the advantages of structural analysis is a suitable method. Some scholars use the real bus operation accident data in Guangdong Province of China as an example and use the Binomial Logistic model to analyse the factors affecting the severity of bus accidents from four scenarios: overall accidents, intervehicle accidents, vehicle-pedestrian accidents, and single-vehicle accidents [20]. FTA can well dig out all the risk factors of accidents based on urban bus operation characteristics, classify all factors, and present them clearly in a structured manner. It is necessary to dig out all the accident risk factors of urban bus operation and it is needed to sort all risk factors and find higher risk factors by the Pearson χ2 statistic and Deviance statistic goodness of fit test. erefore, this paper combines FTA and CLR to find out the higher risk factors of urban bus operation accidents
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