Analysis and prospect of DPRK nuclear issue based on “Strategic logic of nuclear proliferation”

Abstract

ABSTRACT The nuclear proliferation of the DPRK poses an existential threat to the ROK and Northeast Asia. Analyzing this situation using the framework of the “Strategic Logic of Nuclear Proliferation,” it becomes evident that the DPRK's interactions with China, ROK, and the US have facilitated its development. This indicates the fulfilment of both “Willingness” and “Opportunity” factors necessary for proliferation. To put it differently, the low cost of the nuclear programme, the high cost of preventive war, and the substantial security benefits of proliferation have rendered it feasible. Depending on the strategies and policies pursued by the related states and their interactions, the future of the DPRK nuclear issue will unfold in one of three directions: (1) reinforcement, (2) denuclearisation, or (3) status quo. Consequently, to address effectively the DPRK's nuclear problem, it is imperative to enhance cooperation with China, and strengthen the regime for controlling nuclear-related materials and technologies.