Maintaining Stability in Northeast Asia Throughout the Reunification of Korea

Abstract

Abstract : For more than 50 years, reunification of Korea has been an issue desired by both Koreas but one that has never been realized due to totally different ideologies. However, the possible collapse of North Korea has made the possibility of reunification more likely than at any other time in the past. For the countries which are experiencing tough negotiations to keep North Korea away from the proliferation of nuclear weapons, reunification of Korea led by the Republic of Korea (ROK) or South Korea is likely to be thought of as a preferred end-state in this region. However, we must know that reunification of Korea will not solve all the destabilizing conditions in Northeast Asia, but will create another struggle for the balance of power in this region between China, Russia, Japan, the US and a reunified Korea. And it is likely that possible outcomes after reunification could be unfavorable ones for Japan or the United States (US). China and a reunified Korea, both great powers in Northeast Asia, would not accept any excessive commitment in this region by Japan or the US. In order to avoid such outcomes, both Japan and the US must articulate their national strategy to control the outcomes through the reunification process. Preventing reunification and keeping the status quo may be one option for them. However, they should not be preoccupied with the current non-proliferation issue too much, because the more the reunification is delayed, the higher the cost of it will get, and the more North Koreans will die of hunger.