Abstract
Floods have been experienced with greater frequency and more severity under global climate change. To understand the flood hazard and its variation in the future, the current and future flood hazards in the 21st century in China are discussed. Floods and their trends are assessed using the accumulation precipitation during heavy rainfall process (AP_HRP), which are calculated based on historical meteorological observations and the outputs of a global climate model (GCM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The flood-causing HRPs counted by the flood-causing critical precipitation (the 60% fractile of AP_HRP) capture more than 70% of historical flood events. The projection results indicate that the flood hazards could increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and increase slightly under RCP2.6 during the 21st century (2011–2099). The spatial characteristics of flood hazards and their increasing trends under the three RCPs are similar in most areas of China. More floods could occur in southern China, including Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi and Fujian provinces, which could become more serious in southeastern China and the northern Yunnan province. Construction of water conservancy projects, reservoir dredging, improvement of drainage and irrigation equipment and enhancement of flood control and storage capacity can mitigate the impacts of floods and waterlogging on agriculture.
Highlights
The global mean surface has been warming since the Industrial Revolution
The flood-causing heavy rain rain process process (HRP) were basically consistent with the actual disaster records of storms and floods, and it accurately reflected the time characteristics of flood actual disaster records of storms and floods, and it accurately reflected the time characteristics of disasters in the Individual areas and and flood processes havehave not not beenbeen accurately reflected, flood disasters infloodplain
We analyzed the changes in the intensity and frequency of floods in China in the
Summary
The global mean surface has been warming since the Industrial Revolution. Global warming increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere, and hydrological cycle changes [1]. As precipitation is the primary water source for agricultural production in most parts of the world, precipitation characteristics (amount, frequency, intensity) are of great concern to agriculture [2]. Too much (floods) or too little (drought) precipitation is harmful or even devastating to crops [3]. China is the most populous country in the world and is a large agricultural country. Droughts and floods have led to large economic and societal losses [4]. Floods have been experienced globally with greater frequency and more severity [5]
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