Analysis and Prediction of the Influencing Factors of China’s Secondary Industry Carbon Emission under the New Normal

Abstract

Since 2012, China’s economy has entered a new normal. Despite the accelerated optimization of industrial structure and the slowdown of energy consumption growth, with the pace of industrialization and urbanization, the energy demand still has a rigid growth. The problems of resources and environment still restrict the development of China’s economy. The effective measurement and prediction of carbon emissions is the basis for the development of reasonable energy saving and emission reduction programs. This paper analyses the carbon emissions of China’s secondary industries from 2000 to 2015, and uses carbon emissions as the standard for environmental pressure assessment. Research shows that carbon emissions of secondary industry accounted for a larger proportion of total carbon emissions, but growth has slowed. Based on the STIRPAT model, the time series analysis is used to estimate the elasticity coefficient of carbon emission. Indicating that the effect of technological advances to reduce energy intensity, that is, to reduce the energy consumption per unit of added value, which plays a positive role in reducing carbon emissions. The GM (1, 1) model was used to analyse and forecast the carbon emissions of secondary industry from 2016 to 2020. This paper analyzes the growth trends of carbon emissions, providing scientific basis for economic decision-making.