Analysis and modelling of time series of surface wind speed and direction

Abstract

This work presents a climatological study of winds at a particular site and proposes a simple model to simulate data time series of horizontal surface wind. The model relies on three major hypotheses: (i) speed and direction are treated as independent variables; (ii) wind can be expressed as the sum of a deterministic component (including trend and cyclical variations) plus a probabilistic or stochastic component; and (iii) both components (deterministic and stochastic) are independent. An hourly based 7 year wind series measured at the meteorological station in Almazora, located at the Spanish Mediterranean coast, is analyzed. Only the deterministic component of this series is simulated in accordance with the model proposed. Results indicate that the model is especially suitable for predicting wind at sites in which some cyclic pattern is expected. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society