ANALYSIS AND JUSTIFICATION OF PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND METHODS OF CALCULATION OF RISKS OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS AT AUTONOUSING STATIONS

Abstract

Accidents on industrial and other objects are caused by a failure – an event consisting in a violation of the operable condition of equipment, the facility. To the same emergency situation can result in different types of failures and the same failure can lead to different emergency situations. In turn, an emergency situation is a combination of conditions or circumstances, the appea-rance of which can lead to the emergence of risk factors – the causes, driving forces that lead to negative effects on different recipients. Each situation can lead to a single risk factor, and to several at once, which, in turn, can lead to the emergence of one or more types of risk, depending on the nature of the damage caused. The cause of the emergency situation is failure (accumulation of single failures) initiating an event – the development of an accident. Estimates of modern chemical industries give an indicator of the reliability of the accident 10 -3 , that is, large potential technical capabilities for managing the risk in the state of actual reliability of facilities and equipping them with means of control, diagnostics and emergency protection. The dangers of gas stations (gas stations) are due to the presence of explosive and fire hazardous substances inside the equipment and pipelines – diesel fuel and gasoline. When analyzing the hazards at the gas station, thermophysical, thermal and thermodynamic calculations were performed using conventional methods. The choice of methods for analyzing hazards and risks was determined by the goals and objectives of the analysis. The task is to conduct research, analyze and substantiate physical and mathematical models and assess the degree of risk that arises in the course of a particular activity at the fil-ling stations. The main criteria on which it is possible to determine, based on the specific characte-ristics of the chemical-technological scheme of the filling station, the ways of developing possible accidents, have been identified. A quantitative risk analysis made it possible to evaluate and compare hazards by single indicators: in justifying and optimizing security measures; when assessing the risk of major accidents at hazardous production facilities that have the same technical devices (for example, trunk pipelines) in an integrated assessment of the dangers of accidents for people, property and the environment.