Analysis and Forecast of the Number of Deaths, Recovered Cases, and Confirmed Cases From COVID-19 for the Top Four Affected Countries Using Kalman Filter

Abdullah Ali H Ahmadini,Shokrya Saleh A Alshqaq,Muhammad Naeem,Raimi Dewan,Muhammad Aamir,Wali Khan Mashwani

doi:10.3389/fphy.2021.629320

Abstract

COVID-19 is a virus that spread globally, causing severe health complications and substantial economic impact in various parts of the world. The COVID-19 forecast on infections is significant and crucial information that will help in executing policies and effectively reducing the daily cases. Filtering techniques are important ways to model dynamic structures because they provide good valuations over the recursive Bayesian updates. Kalman filters, one of the filtering techniques, are useful in the studying of contagious infections. Kalman filter algorithm performs an important role in the development of actual and comprehensive approaches to inhibit, learn, react, and reduce spreadable disorder outbreaks in people. The purpose of this paper is to forecast COVID-19 infections using the Kalman filter method. The Kalman filter (KF) was applied for the four most affected countries, namely the United States, India, Brazil, and Russia. Based on the results obtained, the KF method is capable of keeping track of the real COVID-19 data in nearly all scenarios. Kalman filters in the archetype background implement and produce decent COVID-19 predictions. The results of the KF method support the decision-making process for short-term strategies in handling the COVID-19 outbreak.

Highlights

The new disease COVID-19 case was first reported in Wuhan, China
We have considered the deaths, confirmed cases, and recovered cases from the COVID-19 datasets for the top four countries, namely the United States, India, Brazil, and Russia
The dataset is loaded to R environment, fit Kalman filter model for daily deaths, recovered cases, and confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the four countries

Summary

Introduction

The new disease COVID-19 case was first reported in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 cases are increasing across the world, imposing severe risk to the global health community. In late 2019, a case of COVID19 was identified in Wuhan, where it later spread to various cities around China before causing outbreaks in 24 nations outside China. The daily increase in the number of confirmed cases has extended to 34,598 on February 8, 2020. The authors Al-qaness et al [1] estimated and predicted the number of cases over the subsequent 10 days to the confirmed cases in China with a new prediction model. The authors Anastassopoulou et al [2] have proposed a model to forecast and analyze the COVID-19 disease outbreak for the Hubei province from January 11, 2020 to February

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Conclusion