Analysis and Forecast of the Arable Land Resource and Food Production Safety in Anhui Province

Abstract

The total dynamic changes of the cultivated land and food production from 1990 to 2010 in Anhui Province were analyzed using the statistic data and minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land were calculated based on cultivated land, food production and population. At the same time, adopting GM(1,1) model, per capita cultivated land area, minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land were forecasted in the future7 years. The results show that: (1) the total amount of the cultivated land decreased on the whole, steady decline early, while increased considerably late; Grain output went up steadily in the fluctuation in general; and the change of minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land was not significant. (2) GM (1,1) gray model shows per capita cultivated land area, minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land decreased, and arable land per capita is higher than the minimum per capita arable land area which descript farmland productivity levels higher than the level of food consumption.