Abstract
Based on the analysis of China’s grain production and demand quality grade, this paper uses the non-equidistance GM (1,1) model and the inference algorithm to predict the structural balance of the supply and demand grades of China’s four major grain crops. The results show that the supply and demand for wheat, corn and rice can maintain a quantitative balance. While, it’s difficult to achieve a quality grade balance in wheat and rice and keep a supply and demand balance in terms of quantity and quality of soybean. Simultaneously, the supply of premium grade corn is greater than the demand. The analysis and prediction results can reflect the existing structural balance matter of grain supply and demand at different quality grades in China, and provide theoretical basis for governments to formulate relevant policies.
Highlights
According to the Statistical Yearbook, China’s grain yield has exceeded 0.6 trillion kilograms for five consecutive years, but the import quantity remained high and have grown year by year
It is essential to study the structural balance of the grain supply and demand quality grade in China
The supply of third grade and below is far greater than demand, and it is increasing at a rate of 2% every year. When it comes to soybean, the yield is much smaller than the demand in both the total amount and the various quality grades
Summary
According to the Statistical Yearbook, China’s grain yield has exceeded 0.6 trillion kilograms for five consecutive years, but the import quantity remained high and have grown year by year. The corn, common wheat, and rice in China are surplus, while soybean, strong gluten and weak gluten are seriously insufficient This shows that the quality of China’s grain production can’t kept up with the increasing demand for high quality food. It is essential to study the structural balance of the grain supply and demand quality grade in China. Guo [8] took the improvement of wheat quality as an example to analyze the impact of improved subsidies on grain quality It can be seen from the previous studies that most scholars analyzed and predicted the total amount of grain supply and demand, qualitatively studied the policy standards of grain quality. Considering the characteristics of grey forecasting for small sample poor information data, this paper divides grain production and consumption into different grades for supply and demand balance research and forecast grain production and demand by grey prediction model. The grey non-equidistant model would make the prediction and analysis results more realistic
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