Analysis and Application of Correlation between Wind Power Output and Fluctuation in Northwest Power Grid of China

Abstract

In recent years, the grid-connection of large-scale wind power has brought great challenges to the dispatching and operation in northwest power grid of China. The research on correlation between wind power output and Fluctuation has important practical significance for the safe and stable operation and the guidance of reserve capacity of the fast frequency modulation standard of hydropower units in northwest power grid of China. Firstly, this paper introduces copula theory to model the joint distribution of wind power output and fluctuating quantity and then provides the solution method of the conditional distribution of wind power fluctuating quantity. Finally, taking the wind power output of northwest power grid of China in 2021 as an example, the wind power fluctuation range under different confidence probability is obtained. The results can guide the selection standard of the reserve capacity of fast frequency modulation in new power system with new energy resources as the main body.