Abstract
This research aims at predicting the future land-use and examining the effects of the land-use changes on the present and future soil erosion and sediment delivery. Then, Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Geo-spatial Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP) were applied. Annual suspended sediment derived from sediment rating curves in Talar Watershed, Iran was used to evaluate the GeoWEPP. The predicted sediment load values of 2016 by GeoWEPP in the likely zone of 0.5 for Shirgah-Talar and Valikbon hydrometric stations were achieved respectively as 756094 and 62082.8 ton. Moreover, the mean annual sediment delivery per unit area of 2000, 2010, 2016 and 2030 were calculated respectively as 37.5, 43, 49.4 and 53.2 (t/ha.yr). The reason for the acquired incremental trend of the soil loss and sediment delivery was the land-use change. The results proved the acceptable performance of LCM combined by GeoWEPP to predict the nearby land-use and related sediment delivery.
Published Version
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