Analysing flash flood risk perception through a geostatistical approach in the village of Navaluenga, Central Spain

Abstract

AbstractFlash floods are unexpected events, which evolve rapidly and affect relatively small areas. The short time available for minimising risks requires preparedness and active response. In this context of risk management, the flood risk perception of the local population is the first step towards achieving resilience of people and communities. Although flood risk perception has intrinsic spatial variability, few previous studies take this into account. This paper explores the spatial variability of flash flood risk perception in the village of Navaluenga in Central Spain, using nonparametric and multivariate geostatistical tools. How local people perceived the flash flood risk to their homes was assessed interviewing a representative sample. Results show that considering these flash flood risk related spatial variables enhances people's psychological interpretation of risk perception: the perception of flash flood risk in a short time event is congruent with those spatial variables. These findings determine priority areas for future risk communication plans. They could also be extrapolated to other urban areas with a similar hydrographic configuration, when there is a flood hazard from a main river and potentially flooded minor water courses, which are even closer to houses but are not considered dangerous by the local population.