Abstract
ABSTRACTThis study was focused on the R&D of the elements of the systems for early warning of risk events as well as on the selection of the mechanisms and indicators for their management. The aim was to derive the mathematical dependences, bioalgorithms, and indicative correlations for upgrading of the HSPF hydrological model. For this purpose analogous modeling of transformation of organics in the river sediments of the parafluvial zone as a function of moisture (in%) was performed. This upgrading can be applied for correct and effective prognosis of the rate of self-purification in the Iskar River in the section from Beli Iskar Reservoir to Iskar Reservoir.The results showed that the combination of total dehydrogenase, nitrate reductase and phosphatase activities could be considered an effective instrument for water quality management and for prediction of the rate of transformation processes. The derived linear mathematical dependences can be applied to calculate other microbiological and kinetic indicators important for monitoring, as well as to create special modules for the HSPF model with a well-functioning verification strategy.
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