Analiza Minskijevog momenta u sistemu valutnog odbora u Bosni i Hercegovini

Abstract

In the past decade the world faced the consequences of the global economic crisis proclaimed in 2008. The common case for everyone was a financial crisis in which every country bore the burden of the crisis in its own way, and in each country generators of the crisis appeared in different segments. In the 1980s American economist Hyman P. Minsky wrote about this topic, explaining the characteristics of financial crises in rigid financial systems. The aim of this paper is to understand the causes and the consequences of the crisis through creation, growth and bursting of the credit bubble in separate market segments in Bosnia and Herzegovina through the system of currency board. Through the application of vector autoregression model (VAR) the responses to shocks, recorded on the side of demand for loans which were generated in the capital markets and in the construction sector, and the credit shock of demand, which formed, developed and then exploded after the proclamation of the global economic crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, were analyzed. Interpretation of the results through the light of hypothesis of Minsky moment is corroborated by an additional fact that a rigid monetary system like currency board did not provide the necessary mechanisms for the maintenance of financial stability. Stability of the financial system of Bosnia and Herzegovina was saved exclusively by the will of parent banks from abroad whose daughters participate in the financial system of Bosnia and Herzegovina.