Abstract
This study aims to determine the effect of Inflation, National Income, Interest Rate and Money Supply through exchange rate moderation variables to non oil and gas exports in Indonesia. The type of research used is descriptive and associative research. The type of data in this study is secondary data and time series data in the form of monthly and quarterly data from 2005 to 2016. Data analysis used is descriptive analysis and inductive analysis. In the inductive analysis there are several tests: Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA), classical assumption test and t test. This result shows that (1) exchange rate has no significant effect to moderate the relationship between inflation to non oil and gas exports in Indonesia (2) Exchange rate has significant effect to moderate the relationship between national income to non-oil exports in Indonesia (3) Interest rate has no significant effect moderate relationship Interest rate on non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia (4) The exchange rate has a significant effect on moderating the relationship between the money supply to non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia.
Highlights
ABSTRAK : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh Inflasi, Pendapatan Nasional, Suku Bunga dan Jumlah Uang Beredar melalui variabel moderasi Nilai Tukar terhadap Ekspor Non Migas di Indonesia
This study aims to determine the effect of Inflation, National Income, Interest Rate and Money Supply through exchange rate moderation variables to non oil and gas exports in Indonesia
Ekonomi Internasional Teori dan Kebijakan Edisi Kelima
Summary
Menurut Mankiw (2003:13), ekspor adalah arus keluar sejumlah barang dan jasa dari suatu negara ke pasar internasional. Dipilihnya komoditi ekspor non migas karena harga minyak bumi di pasaran dunia mengalami kemerosotan. Untuk mengatasi situasi yang tidak menguntungkan, maka pemerintah berusaha mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap ekspor migas yaitu dengan mengadakan diversifikasi penerimaan ke arah peningkatan produksi serta peningkatan ekspor komoditi dan jasa-jasa non migas. Dari uraian tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa ekspor sangat berperan penting terhadap perkembangan perekonomian Indonesia baik penerimaan pendapatan dalam bentuk devisa maupun peningkatan kegiatan produksi domestik. Teori Nilai Tukar terhadap Ekspor Non Migas Menurut Krugman dan Obsttfeld (2005:40), kurs adalah harga satu mata uang terhadap mata uang lainnya. Ekspor sangat tergantung pada kurs valuta asing dan harga dalam negeri. Depresiasi atau apresiasi nilai mata uang akan mengakibatkan perubahan terhadap ekspor maupun impor. Yaitu nilai mata uang dalam negeri secara relatif terhadap mata uang asing menurun, volume ekspor akan menaik. Apabila nilai kurs dollar menguat, maka volume ekspor juga akan meningkat
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