Analisis Kestabilan dan Kontrol Optimum pada Model Penyebaran Penyakit Influenza dengan Adanya Populasi Cross-Immune

Abstract

Influenza is a respiratory tract infection known as flu. Caused by an RNA virus from Orthomyxoviridae family. This thesis aims to analyze the stability of the equilibrium point in the mathematical model of influenza transmission with Cross-Immune population and applying optimal control variables in the form of prevention and treatment. In this mathematical model of influenza transmission with Cross-Immune population, we obtain two equilibriums namely, the non- endemic equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. Local stability and the existence of endemic equilibrium depend on the basic reproduction number (R0). The spread of influenza does not occur in the population when R0 < 1 and the spread of influenza persist in the population when R0 > 1. Furthermore, the problem of control variables in the mathematical model of influenza transmission is determined through the Pontryagin Maximum Principle method. The numerical simulation results show that treatment efforts are more effective in suppressing the spread of influenza disease than prevention efforts. However, giving control variables in the form of prevention and treatment at the same time is very effective in minimizing the number of human populations expose to and infected with influenza.