Abstract
This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)
Highlights
PENDAHULUAN Suatu negara dalam mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi membutuhkan dana yang relatif besar
Abstrak: This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates
The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia
Summary
Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari lembaga atau instansi terkait seperti Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Sumatera Barat, Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi. Analisis Regresi Berganda adalah pendekatan yang digunakan untuk menganalisis hubungan antar variabel bebas dan variabel terikat dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis regresi berganda. Variabel terikat dalam penelitian ini adalah kurs rupiah terhadap dollar, sedangkan variabel bebasnya meliputi suku bunga, pendapatan nasional, eskpor neto, suku bunga luar negeri dan inflasi luar negeri. Model persamaan Error Correction Model (ECM) penelitian ini adalah: Δlog(ULNt) = α0 + α1ΔLog(PDBt) + α2ΔRIRt + α3ΔCPIt + et (2). Uji selanjutnya yaitu uji hipotesis digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Uji T untuk mengetahui apakah pada model regresi variabel bebas secara parsial mempengaruhi variabel terikat secara signifikan dengan membandingkan t-hitung dan t-tabel. Selanjutnya yaitu uji F untuk mengetahui apakah variabel bebas secara bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap variabel terikat
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