Abstract
This study was to analyze the contribution rate (the rupiah against the U.S. dollar), Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and Output Growth (GDP) of the current account balance in Indonesia. The data used in this study secondary data is sourced from Indonesia Financial Statistics. The data used is the data quarterly from the first quarter of 2000 up to 2010 fourth quarter. The results of the estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) indicates that there is a relationship between the Current Account, Exchange Rate, Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP at lag t-1. Impulse response function of the stability of the first note that all variables are in the long run that is over 5 years and tend to be stable. This means that in the short term variables that are used do not provide a meaningful contribution in the long term but will mutually contribute to each other. Variance Decomposition Based on these results, it is known that all variables contributed to the Current Account, but his greatest contribution is of the variable itself, this means that the current account tends to a variable receiving contributions rather than giving contributions
Highlights
Perekonomian global yang terjadi saat ini sebenarnya merupakan perkembangan dari proses perdagangan internasional
The data used in this study secondary data is sourced from
that there is a relationship between the Current Account
Summary
Depresiasi nilai tukar yang tajam setelah perubahan sistem nilai tukar dari sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali (managed floating exchange rate) ke sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas (free floating exchange rate) merubah posisi neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia yang sebelumnya selalu mengalami defisit menjadi surplus. Disamping itu aliran modal keluar akan lebih banyak dari pada yang masuk kedalam negeri (Nasaruddin , 2002 : 2 ).Demikian pula dengan Pertumbuhan ekonomi kaitannya dengan neraca transaksi berjalan, dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi yang digambarkan dalam GDP (Pendapatan riil) menunjukkan kemampuan konsumen domestik dalam membeli barang barang konsumsi. Kenaikan pendapatan domestik akan menyebabkan meningkatnya belanja masyarakat terhadap barang-‐barang, termasuk barang impor suatu Negara, yang akan memperburuk kondisi neraca transaksi berjalan. Penelitian ini akan mengamati lima variabel endogen yaitu Neraca transaksi Berjalan (NTB), Nilai Tukar riil US $ terhadap Rupiah ( NT ), Tingkat Inflasi (P), Pertumbuhan Ekonomi/GDP ( PDB ), dan Suku bunga ( SBL ) , di Indonesia maka hubungan interdependens antara kelima variabel tersebut dispesifikasikan ke dalam sistem persamaan yang terdiri dari lima persamaan berikut: NTBt = 1+. Inflasi Indonesia dihitung dari perubahan IHK Indonesia, PDB adalah Pertumbuhan ekonomi (pertumbuhan output Indonesia berdasarkan PDB semua sektor berdasarkan harga konstan), dan SBL adalahSuku bunga LIBOR 6 bulan (suku bunga internasional). t adalah kuartal, dan j adalah jumlah lag (kelambanan) kuartal yang dipilih berdasarkan estimasi terbaik. 1t , ε2t , ε3t , 4t dan 5t merupakan proses white noise (independen terhadap perilaku historis NTB, NT, P, PDB dan SBL)
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