Abstract
Land cover is one of factors which is important in watershed management. The changes of land cover in a watershed can affect the hydrology abstraction. Land cover of upstream Citarum watershed is potentially changes. Economy, social, population, and natural hazard are factors that affect the change in land cover. The aim of this research were to analyze spatial change of land cover in upstream Citarum watershed period 2006-2014 and predicting future land cover of 2030 as usual and applying a policy to conserve paddy field and forest. Analysis was carried out applying Cellular automata markov chain of land cover spatial model. The result showed that Kappa and total accuracy for image classification were 0.89 and 0.92. Dominant land cover type in upstream Citarum watershed was paddy field of 25.99 – 26.06%. The average of land cover changes approximately < 1% with conversion of paddy field to built up area is the dominant change. Model validation of 2014 predicted land cover was 0.992, while Kappa for optimum iteration of 7 was 0.994. The land cover for period 2006-2030 was change approximately < 1%. The types of land cover that increase in 2030 were built up area and mixed farming of 0.21% and 0.11%, respectively, while plantation forest, moor, paddy field, and bareland were decreasing approximately 0.17, 0.23, 0.62 and 0.02%. The predicted land cover of 2030 under protection of paddy filed and forest scenario was trigger the increasing of mixed farming 0.36%, while moor and bareland were decrease of 0.22 and 0.10%.
Highlights
Perubahan tutupan lahan di suatu Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) mempengaruhi karakteristik hidrologi DAS tersebut (CWRD, 2012; ADB, 2013; Hidayat, 2014)
of factors which is important in watershed management
The changes of land cover in a watershed can affect on the hydrology abstraction
Summary
Perubahan tutupan lahan di suatu Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) mempengaruhi karakteristik hidrologi DAS tersebut (CWRD, 2012; ADB, 2013; Hidayat, 2014). Kajian spasial perubahan tutupan lahan di DAS Citarum Hulu, terutama terkait jenis tutupan lahan pertanian dan hutan diklasifikasikan secara umum baik berdasarkan batas DAS (Agaton et al, 2016), ataupun batas administratif (Hermawan, 2011). ISSN 2086-4639 | e-ISSN 2460-5824 JPSL Vol 8 (3): 365-375 penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan spasial tutupan lahan di DAS Citarum Hulu periode 2006-2014 dengan mempertimbangkan beberapa jenis tutupan lahan yang merupakan bagian dari jenis pertanian. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan model cellular automata markov chain (CA-M) yang merupakan salah satu model spasial perubahan tutupan lahan yang telah dimanfaatkan secara luas (Hedge et al, 2008; Munibah, 2008, Hermawan, 2011; Wang et al, 2012; Xin et al, 2012; Riccioli et al, 2013; Nouri, 2014; Mondal, 2016). Peta potensial perubahan tersebut disusun berdasarkan faktor biofisik yang memicu terjadinya perubahan tutupan lahan
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Schedule a callMore From: Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management)
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