An optimization model for the long-term energy planning based on useful energy, economic and environmental pollution reduction in residential sector: A case of Iran

Abstract

Energy developments plays a crucial role in the political power, economic growth, social development and environmental degradation of developing countries. Energy consumption in residential sector is an essential issue for providing a large variety of services that are necessary for social life tasks such as heating, cooling, and lighting. Therefore, there is a need for depiction of energy outlook and selection of appropriate strategies as the main pillars of economic and political stability in each society. The main objective of this research is to design and apply a methodology that helps decision makers for simulation, optimization and analysis of the residential sector energy system. The proposed model was developed to forecast useful energy services in this sector and a bottom-up optimization model under various constraints has been suggested. In this model, several end-use technologies are embedded in an aggregated algorithm based upon the Reference Energy System (RES) concept as the main conceptualized model of the energy supply chain for a long-run horizon of 35 years (2015–2050). Model results indicate, the energy saving potential following on implementation of Energy Conservation projects has been estimated 25% and 31% for the target years of 2040 and 2050 in the case study region. In addition, Environmental Pollution (EP) reduction potential is projected to be about 2037 million tons in the end year. This reduction could help moving toward sustainable development and fulfilling the Paris agreement obligations.