An Open-Ended Transition: The Effects of Electoral Reform in Italy

Abstract

This article evaluates the impact of the 1993 electoral reform in Italy on four political dependent variables: clear winners and concomitant left-right alternation in government; fragmentation of the party system; governmental stability; and party polarization. The reform, under which 75 percent of parliamentary seats are allocated according to the plurality rule and the remaining 25 percent according to proportional representation, had a declared majoritarian purpose. As a useful benchmark, the attributes associated with a pure majoritarian system are measured against the actual effects that the reform has brought about. Analyzing the outcomes of the general elections of 1994, 1996 and 2001, it is concluded that the changes the new electoral law has engendered on the Italian political system have fallen well short of the stated aspirations of the reformers.