An Object-Based Forecast Verification Tool for Synoptic-Scale Rossby Waveguides

Abstract

AbstractAn accurate representation of synoptic-scale Rossby waves in numerical weather forecast models is very important as these waves are closely linked to weather formation at the surface. Enhanced potential vorticity (PV) gradients at the tropopause levels act as waveguides for synoptic-scale Rossby waves, so spatial errors in the waveguides imply errors in the amplification and propagation of Rossby waves. This paper focuses on evaluating the forecast representation of these waveguides and presents an object-based forecast verification tool. In both forecast and the verification data, Rossby waveguide objects are defined based on enhanced PV gradient fields on isentropic surfaces. The tool automatically pairs the complex objects, compares their properties, and assesses the number of objects without a matching partner in either the forecast or the reanalysis. In the last step, error measures are calculated for the area and the location of the objects. As proof-of-concept application of the method for the year 2008, five lead times of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) from the ECMWF are compared with the ECMWF reanalysis dataset. The majority of the waveguide objects are found to be in the correct position, and there are no systematic positional errors; however, the forecast objects and hence the areas of enhanced PV gradients are smaller.