An interdisciplinary review of systemic risk factors leading up to existential risks

Abstract

Systemic risks derive from a mix of economic, technological, socio political, and ecological factors. Inherently interdisciplinary, the study of systemic risk draws on financial shock models, operations research, global health, foresight, management, military strategy, risk assessment, risk sociology, disaster research, security studies, science and technology studies, existential risk (X-risk) research as well as the AI risk and biorisk communities. The study of systemic risk requires developing transdisciplinary tools that can better integrate the insights drawn from these disparate fields despite high uncertainty. Nevertheless, there remains no overarching framework specifically formulated for systemic risks beyond economics. This paper reviews this body of work aiming to begin formulating an approach for the integrated study of systemic risk leading up to existential risks or X-risks, the possibility of human extinction. Given that risks that threaten entire societies might cascade across systems, the various systemic risk fields should begin to align risk factors and vocabulary to better combine insights and increase humanity's resilience.