An integrated system to significant wave height prediction: Combining feature engineering, multi-criteria decision making, and hybrid kernel density estimation

Abstract

Accurate prediction of significant wave height is paramount for the effective design, operation, and maintenance of wave energy converters. However, current research falls short in achieving precise and stable point predictions, along with comprehensive uncertainty analysis of significant wave height. To address this gap, this study presents a comprehensive significant wave height combined prediction system. This integrated system encompasses outlier detection utilizing Autoencoders, sophisticated feature engineering, a multi-criteria decision-based model selection methodology, a multi-objective homogeneous nuclear molecular optimization algorithm, and a hybrid kernel density estimation technique. To tackle the critical issue of model selection within ensemble prediction, we introduce a multi-criteria compromise solution ranking algorithm known as VIKOR for the selection of sub-models. Additionally, a novel multi-objective homogeneous nuclear molecular optimization algorithm is proposed, which incorporates joint opposing selection and an elite retention strategy to effectively manage multiple objectives simultaneously, yielding Pareto optimal solutions for combining weights. Furthermore, a hybrid kernel density estimation approach is developed, surpassing previous methods reliant on a single kernel function and fixed bandwidth, thereby achieving a more precise fit to the distribution of wave height data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is rigorously evaluated using wave height datasets from three distinct locations. The experimental results convincingly demonstrate that the significant wave height combined prediction system outperforms existing solutions, excelling in both point and interval predictions of significant wave height.