Abstract

The occurrence and severity of agricultural droughts may not be dependent upon climatic variables alone. Rather increasingly, drought is affected by human interventions such as irrigation. Anthropogenic activity has introduced uncertainty in the assessment of current drought and future drought risk in many parts of the world; neither climatic nor remote sensing data alone are able to assess drought conditions effectively. In response, we present a simple approach to assess drought by combining a remote sensing-based drought index, the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), climate data (i.e., rainfall and temperature), and field observations to evaluate recent drought conditions in northwestern Bangladesh (NWB). Applying this approach, we gained five insights: (i) the TVDI successfully indicated the drought conditions of NWB and agrees with field observations, (ii) the integrated use of TVDI and climate data (such as rainfall and temperature) provides the best understanding of the difference between meteorological drought and droughts resulting from surface moisture conditions, (iii) the TVDI results agree with rainfall data (r2 = 0.40 in March and r2 = 46 in April) in a part of the study area (NWB) where irrigation is not available, (iv) the TVDI can be used along with climate data to predict the potential risk of drought, and (v) while meteorological drought exists due to low rainfall and high temperature in this NWB in pre-monsoon season, because of widespread irrigation practices, meteorological drought is unable to trigger agricultural drought over most parts of the study area. The findings imply that there is a potential risk of drought in NWB, since any disruption of irrigation water supply could trigger a severe agricultural drought over the whole region. This is similar to what is currently observed over a small part of NWB.

Highlights

  • Drought is recognized as a complex natural disaster that has severe effects on wildlife, agriculture, and the economy [1,2,3]

  • Results are presented in three groups: (i) assessment of drought using the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), (ii) integration of TVDI results with climate variables, and (iii) comparison of TVDI results with field observations

  • The variation of the TVDI over the January to April period of all other years is notably similar, where the TVDI is mostly low in January and increases gradually, becoming highest in the hottest months of March and April and indicating severe drought over a small part of the study area in northwestern Bangladesh

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Summary

Introduction

Drought is recognized as a complex natural disaster that has severe effects on wildlife, agriculture, and the economy [1,2,3]. The number of people affected by drought is greater than from any other class of natural disaster [2,4]. There have been many large-scale droughts affecting sizable areas of Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, South America, Central America, and North America that can be linked to significant economic losses, food shortages, and in some cases, starvation for millions of people [5,6,7]. The adverse effects of drought are normally increased if drought occurs in an agrarian and densely populated region, such as South Asia, where millions of people are directly or indirectly dependent on diverse agricultural activities [11]. The severity of drought in some parts of South Asia such as in Bangladesh has been extensively reduced by intensive irrigation, using available but slowly declining underground water for the cultivation of high yield variety (HYV) boro rice [12]

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